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Group Winner’s Rewarded: Champions League Draw Review

Article by Lee Beevor

If ever evidence were needed to prove that winning a Champions League group is essential, it arrived today. Having looked at the results of the draw for the Round of 16, it is difficult to make a case for any of this year’s runners-up progressing to the quarter-finals. Of the English clubs, both Chelsea and Manchester United accumulated sufficient points to top their respective groups. Admittedly, both had relatively simple assignments and whilst Chelsea contrived to make hard work of theirs, they did at least ultimately, do enough.

Not so Manchester City and Arsenal, who for different reasons, failed at the final hurdle. City needed a goal in the last 30 minutes to overhaul Bayern at the head of Group D. Incredibly, manager Pellegrini was not aware of this fact, nor it seems was anyone on the City bench. As such, Sergio Aguero remained an unused substitute and City won the battle, but not the war. Their reward in February’s knock-out stage is a duel with Barcelona. For a team still inexperienced in European competition, facing the Catalan’s could be too stiff a test at this point in their evolution.

Arsenal’s 2-0 reverse at Napoli was disappointing, as the Gunners had played themselves into pole position to qualify in first place. After winning in Dortmund, they required only a draw in Italy to consolidate their lead in Group F. That they failed to achieve it, against a team that is woefully out of form, suggests they still lack killer instinct. The penalty for this failure is the dubious opportunity of proving themselves against the best team in Europe, Bayern Munich.

By contrast, Chelsea and Manchester United will be strong favourites to ease into the last eight, having been drawn with Galatasaray and Olympiakos respectively. The added reassurance of second legs in their own stadia, give them the opportunity to erase any mishaps they may encounter on their travels. Not that this is likely to be necessary, as both clubs have shown the ability to score freely away from home in this competition. With the importance of the away goal rule, each will be looking to register on the score-sheet and take a precious advantage back to England.

The remaining matches look equally promising for those victorious in their designated groups. Zlatan and Cavani should have too much firepower and enable PSG to blast past Bayer Leverkusen. Similarly, Schalke are unlikely to enjoy defending against Ronaldo’s Madrid anymore than they did when torn apart by Chelsea. Zenit will face up to Dortmund during their pre-season, as their 2014 league campaign does not commence until March, making their task all but impossible.

The final tie is potentially a little more finely balanced. Based on their seasons to date, Atlético would cruise past Milan. However, the Rossoneri’s inexplicably poor form surely will have improved by the time these fixtures are fulfilled. Similarly can Atlético continue their impressive run or will a decline in La Liga dent their confidence? These are two huge matches for the “other” Madrid and I expect them to be more closely contested than current form would suggest.

Round of 16 draw in full:

Manchester City v Barcelona

Bayer Leverkusen v Paris St-Germain

Arsenal v Bayern Munich

AC Milan v Atlético Madrid

Olympiakos v Manchester United

Zenit St Petersberg v Borussia Dortmund

Galatasaray v Chelsea

Schalke v Real Madrid

Predicted Quarter-Finalists:
Barcelona, PSG, Bayern, Atlético, Manchester United, Dortmund, Chelsea and Real Madrid.

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