Everton FC: The Cost of Potential

Article by Jim Thompson

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The similarities between the paths being taken by Ross Barkley and Wayne Rooney are starting to look like another limp Coronation Street sub-plot. All heading for a familiar conclusion involving Gail slapping someone in the face outside the Rovers Return or in this case, Barkley being pictured in the shirt of Man City/United/Chelsea/Other [delete as applicable]

The grew up just 5 miles apart. Barkley in suburban Wavertree, Rooney kicking cans around the housing estates of Croxteth. When Barkley was 8 and just getting identified by local scouts as ‘one to watch’, Rooney was making his explosive debut for Everton. Rooney was gone from Everton at the age of 18 just as Barkley joined the Everton academy when he was 11 so their paths never ‘actually’ crossed it would seem.

Rooney came through the productive youth conveyor belt of talent at Everton, a boyhood Evertonian getting to a point in his career where he had the world at his feet...or...stick with a struggling and stagnating Everton. Once a blue, always a blue. Old Trafford it was then.

Ross has taken that precise route. Academy graduate, Blue blood for life, every corner of the media espousing his potential as the next Gazza, his own manager even proclaiming him as potentially a player in the mould of Ballack. The most outrageous of all, Jamie Carragher calling him out as the replacement for Stevie G Larrrrr. Sublime to the ridiculous right there.

So Barkley appears to be at a critical fork in the road for him and Everton. He wants to stay at a successful Everton and depending on the advice he’s getting in his shell-like, might just give it a couple more years. This season might be a tipping point either way though. Mediocrity with no sign of improvement next season will almost certainly lead to Barkley’s exit in the summer of 2015. Some sort of turnaround, a brilliant Europa League run or some sign that Martinez and Kenwright are moving things forward should be enough to secure ‘England’s brightest talent in a generation’ to give it a while longer on the mean streets of Liverpool 4.

The mood of the Everton faithful seems on the wane though. Twelve months ago, on the crest of a wave and any Evertonian suggesting that the club should sell Barkley would have been burnt at the stake. Today, there’s talk of taking the money on offer (if such speculation even has any substance) and running off into the sunset with anything from £20m to £45m. This is a dangerous ‘moment’ to quote Mr Martinez. You get the feeling that any hint of approval for the selling off of the family jewels might just tilt Bill Kenwright in the direction of talking pound notes with the inevitable host of suitors. He said he’s never sell Rooney remember. If Ross goes, then you can expect the likes of Coleman, Mirallas, Stones, McCarthy and anyone else with market value to jump ship. At least such a scenario would provide Roberto with enough financial clout to buy a load more Wigan players.

A whole different question about what makes a club a selling club, can be debated somewhere else. Are Liverpool a selling club (Suarez) or Manchester United (Ronaldo)? Maybe an offer becomes so huge and/or the player becomes so determined that the whole process becomes an irresistible force?

The problem with the above list of young bucks is that they represent, in theory, the next five to seven years of Everton. Take them out of the equation and try and apply those timescales to Jagielka, Baines, Distin, Osman, Barry and Howard. Ouch!

Barkley’s form is blowing very hot and cold though this season. He’s shown some flashes of brilliance but more often than not has flattered to deceive with insipid and indisciplined displays hinting at undertones of frustration. He’s only 21 though and his one-step-forward-two-steps-back season is coinciding with Everton’s own on-field issues, Roberto Martinez’s failure to play him in his favoured position so that he can accommodate Eto’o or Naismith there instead. So what comes first? The chicken or the egg? The dribbling football media will only see the best of Ross Barkley though when his team start to perform properly and his manager settles on a shape that fits his play. Yes, Roberto Martinez should start every team sheet with Barkley at number 10 and build the rest around that.

So what exactly is Ross Barkley worth in this hypothetical transfer?

There’s no formula really because so much of what Ross has is locked in potential.

You could look Rooney himself for £25.6m but that was over 10 years ago.

Recent signings in the Premier League prove equally hard to compare.

Does Danny Welbeck for £16m give us any pointers? Callum Chambers for £12m? Fabregas for £30m but he gives proven talent. Luke Shaw to Manchester United for £31.5m maybe gives us the best yardstick as to what the going rate might be for young, English unfulfilled potential although Ross Barkley offers even more than the likes of Shaw. You could look at a raft of Brendan Rodgers signings but the way he conducts himself in the transfer market suggests he’d spend £125m on Barkley. It ultimately all comes down to what the seller will sell for and what the buyer will pay. Ebay on acid. So any future Ross Barkley transfer will probably secure something in the realms of £35m with various add-ons and clauses.

What do I know though?

Maybe we can look back on this article this time next year when it is archived and snigger at it’s foresight or it’s dumbness.

I do know that Everton have managed to shed their image as a selling club though in recent years and fear the loss of Ross Barkley would be cataclysmic for the future and reputation of the club. It might take a generation to recover from the ensuing talent drain that would inevitably follow.

Over to you Bill.

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