Oy vey, USA

Article by Jon Lewis

I woke up this morning to nearly 7 inches of snow … about twice what we usually get a year … and just in time for the World Cup Draw. I had run group simulators all week, which was a real time suck, and pretty much every scenario seemed kinda bad … some worse than others … none worse than Group G … which is what we’ve got.

Group G puts the US with Germany, Ghana, and Portugal … the best team in Europe (yes I know that Spain is in Europe), the best team in Africa (yes I know that the Ivory Coast has a good team, but Ghana is better), and the best player in the world (yes I know that Lionel Messi is really good too) … I have no idea how we compare in the FIFA rankings – the rankings mean nothing anyway – for sure the US will be underdogs in all three games … and this may be a good thing (at least that’s what I’m telling myself … and that’s what the former USMNT player Alexei Lalas said on TV this morning); the USMNT can play loose because everyone is expecting them to go home early.

Jürgen Klinsmann, our terrific coach (a former Spurs player of course, and lately a rumored replacement for AVB – no thanks on that change until after this summer), takes a very different view, that when you go to a tournament like this you have to play, and you have to beat, some really good teams.

The problem – and he didn’t say this out loud -- is that we have to play and beat some really, really good teams right away.

We play Ghana first, then Portugal (someplace deep in the jungle), then Germany … with all the bad luck (oh ya, the USMNT will have to travel further than any other team in the competition through the first three games), the order works in our favor … well, in our favor if we win the first game. If we can go into the jungle for game 2 with 3 points and play well against the weakest of the three teams (Portugal is not as good as Ghana, in my view at least) all the while knowing that a win will probably be enough … we’ve got a real shot.

If we lose the first game we’re probably out … which has its upside too … our hearts won’t be much broken if we’re out by the time Germany runs us off the pitch or just as likely, when a dumb decision (yes, I remember 2002) gives them the game. A German friend of mine texted to see if I had seen the draw and then pointed out that if Germany and Brazil both win their groups – which is likely – they won’t play each other until the final. Good news for them.

Some other teams have it rough too, I guess – England has to beat Italy or Uruguay and Costa Rica (where my son played this past summer) – Chile and Australia drew Spain and the Netherlands, which sucks for them. You’ve got to play and you’ve got to beat good teams at the World Cup.

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