NUFC - Consistently Inconsistent

Article by e-Newcastle Correspondent Chris Revell

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Trawling through Newcastle’s results and statistics from this season compounds the inconsistency produced by the team over the last 7 months. Great wins and good runs of form have equal numbers of disappointing performances and poor results. I’ve attempted to analyse the formations NUFC have adopted for these games to see if there is some correlation between the formations we use and the results we achieve.

For this data I am only analysing the starting formation. I could go into more detail about substitutions, changes in formation, minutes played in certain formations etc. However that would turn this quick article into a mind numbing regurgitation of statistics (which I feel I am currently flirting with anyway!).

As far as I can tell NUFC have adopted 4 different starting formations which can be split into two essential shapes: the 4-4-2 and the 4-3-3 (often Pardew employs the 4-2-3-1 variation on the 4-3-3).

So here are the stats; in the 28 games played to date we have started with a 4-4-2 in 10 of them, winning 7, drawing 2 and losing 1. During these games we have scored 14 and conceded 5. 8 of these games we played against teams currently below us in the table, whilst 2 were played against teams higher in the table (both providing wins). The 4-4-2 was used in 7 home games and in 3 away games.

The 4-3-3 (or variations thereof) was operated in the other 18 games. From these games we achieved 5 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats, scoring 23 and conceding 32. 8 of these games were against teams higher than us in the table with 10 against teams lower in the table. We have operated this shape in 11 away games and 7 home games.

The higher number of games against better opposition can account for 6 of the defeats when operating the 4-3-3. To me these figures suggest the Pardew needs to alter to the 4-4-2 for almost every game. Operating a target man in tandem with Remy upfront provides both our best return of goals per game and provides the stronger defensive record.

Looking at some of our more depressing defeats:

Double loss to the Mackems both games operated a 4-3-3.
Losing at home to Hull, 4-3-3.
Losing to Swansea away, 4-4-2.
Losing capitulating at home to Spurs, 4-3-3.

And some of our better results:

Beating Man U away, 4-3-3.
Beating Chelsea at home and Spurs away, 4-4-2 (we changed to a 4-5-1 for the last 30 minutes of the spurs game).
Drawing at home to Liverpool with 10 men for most of the game, 4-3-3.

I think these results suggest that Pardew needs to play with his wingers in a slightly more defensive role to cover our attacking full backs. Additionally the results suggest Remy operates better with support upfront to help him close down defenders and to provide link up play with the midfield.

I think this analysis captures why we haven’t seen the best form from players such as Marveaux or HBA. They have the ability to create goals in the final third, but they are not willing to provide the hard work to cover Remy, Santon or Debuchy in defence (I think this may be a slight injustice to HBA as he does try but often cant maintain it for a full 90 minutes).

Changing to a more adventurous style of football away from home, against the right teams, could do little detriment to the results we have achieved and potentially could gain us an extra 3 to 6 points on our current position in tandem to providing us fans with a more exciting style of football for our investment. So in future if we see the 4-4-2 line up expect good things from that game!

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