Order of the Felix: Fulham Struggling for Survival

Article by e-Fulham Correspondent Barnaby Mollett

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The Cottagers lie bottom of the Premier League pile, without a win since the first day of 2014 and form more erratic than the stunningly varied results of my home-baking career. It looks like it will take a footballing miracle to keep Fulham in the Premier League, and the appointment of apparent ‘militant tough guy’ manager Felix Magath may not be enough to provide this. However, a sense of optimism I’ve gained from finding a £2 coin behind the back of the sofa today has persuaded me to look in some detail at Magath’s credentials, and the great Fulham relegation Houdini of 2007/08, in order to assess the chances of pulling off another escape act.

Magath’s Previous Experience

Okay, so he’s a three-time Bundesliga winner, with Bayern Munich (twice) and Wolfsburg. Pulling off the latter was something equivalent of Everton or Southampton winning the Premier League, and is impressive by any standards. However, Magath seems to be a manager with strong credentials in the short term, before managing to isolate himself from players, chairmen and fans over the long haul.

You may argue – and you would be right – that Fulham need a short-term solution most pressingly. And, hey presto, Felix Magath has been credited as being a relegation specialist in much of the fanfare relating to his appointment, having saved Wolfsburg from the drop in a second stint at the club in 2010/11. Here’s the lowdown: with eight games remaining of the season, Wolfsburg had dropped to seventeenth (out of eighteen) in the Bundesliga. Magath’s team ended up winning three, drawing three, and losing two, surviving by 4 points. The table below shows us the statistics:

Compared to Fulham’s current position – and run in – Wolfsburg’s rescue was a relative walk in the park. They played just one team who was in the top half of the table at the time of kick off, and they were only ever one point from safety, and St. Pauli and Eintracht Frankfurt who ended up getting relegated were in form worse than a BLT without bacon. Comparing this to Fulham’s run in below gives some perspective:

By contrast, Fulham have four of their remaining fixtures against teams in the top eight. The average position of teams to be faced is 11th, relative to 12th (out of a smaller league of 18) for Wolfsburg. However, there is a crumb of comfort that can be drawn for the Cottagers: under Magath, Wolfsburg got 1.5 points per game during their run in. The same for Fulham would take them to 36 points. Would this be enough to stay up? Ask me in the evening of 11th May.

Fulham’s Previous Experience

It’s not like Fulham haven’t been aboard HMS Flirting With Disaster before. At the beginning of each season, even the most optimistic of Fulham fans have a quick glance at the last game of the fixture list, to ‘prepare for the worst’. A number of seasons have required the Whites to pick up some important late points, none more so than the ‘great escape’ of 2007/08 under Roy Hodgson.

Amazingly, after 28 games of that season, Fulham had 19 points – 2 fewer than in this season current. And yet, this current season seems as dismal as a grey January day in Milton Keynes. Certainly, the power of hindsight gives a decidedly rosy afterglow to the Hodgson era, and an escape as theatrically enduring as Luke Skywalker flying into the Death Star in an X-Wing , just to come out unscathed on the other side. Nonetheless, although it’s now six years on, I don’t remember that team being turned over quite as easily as the current squad. The statistics back my thoughts up; despite the lower points tally, in 2007/08 after 28 games, Fulham had lost 15 games with a goal difference of -23, whereas this season the Cottagers have lost 19 games and a substantially worse goal difference of -34.

The Verdict

So, Felix Magath has his work cut out. But, as Roy’s boys proved, escaping from a mathematically worse situation was possible. Although this squad has been through more transformations than Optimus Prime, there are still some players that could – and need to – lead by example. Fulham need a 2014 Brian McBride, a 2014 Jimmy Bullard, and a 2014 Erik Nevland. I’d like to throw Parker and Holtby in for nominations for the first two, and have my fingers crossed that somebody can step into the heroic-last-stand goalscoring void Nevland filled in 2008. It needs to happen, and quickly, if Fulham stand any chance of not playing Brentford away next season.

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