Norwich City: Every Point is Sacred, Every Point is Good

Article by e-Norwich Correspondent Colin Rowe

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Stoke at home is a must win game for Norwich, or so claimed this blog and various other commentators across the Internet, but a draw against the Potters has not disheartened the Y’Army faithful in the way some of us might have predicted.

It would be easy to spend hours and many paragraphs examining the reasons the Yellows failed to win on Saturday.

Why did Norwich look under the cosh for most of the first half during such an important game, was replacing Hoolahan with Howson a good call at just 1-0 up, should a second striker have come on sooner when Stoke equalised, how come Norwich failed to take advantage of the extra man and what in the name of everything was Sebastian Bassong thinking when he gave away the penalty?

However, with just nine games to go we cannot afford to be picky and need to just keep our heads down and get over the line.

To paraphrase Monty Python, at this stage of the season every point is sacred and a draw keeps the Canary’s four points and two places clear of the drop-zone on 29 points.

General thinking suggests teams will not need to reach 38 points to survive, in fact 35 might even be enough to ensure survival. For Norwich to reach this level they require just two more victories and Sunderland and West Bromwich are still to visit Carrow Road.

As much as many of us hate doing it and wish it was not necessary at this stage of the season, it is worth taking a vertigo-inducing peak over the edge and take a look at the teams below us.

Fulham are looking increasingly doomed at the bottom of the table and require at least 14 points from their remaining nine games to stand a chance of surviving. While mathematically possible it is hard to see a Felix Magath inspired resurgence.

Despite beating the Premiership’s bottom team, Cardiff similarly look slightly cut adrift on 25 points with nine to play. It is one thing beating Fulham at home, it is completely another getting points against other teams.

Sunderland, with three games in hand, should be able to drag themselves out of the relegation scrap, even if one of those rescheduled games is against Manchester City, however the fixture pile up might cause them some troubles.

West Brom has just one game extra to play and sit on 25 points, meaning they might only require a point a game, but in their current form this is quite a tall order.

Crystal Palace have looked a much-improved side under Tony Pullis, but newly promoted teams often struggle in the final games as the pressures of the long Premiership season take its effect.

Looking at this, what becomes clear is Norwich, while certainly in the relegation dogfight, do stand a good chance of staying up, if the points total can keep ticking over.

The relegation six-pointers against Sunderland and West Brom are certainly must wins as they provide the double whammy of pushing the Yellows up and other teams down, but our away form is equally important.

Southampton, Swansea and Fulham provide our next three away days and draws in all of them would go a long way to ensuring a fourth consecutive season in the top-flight.

Many Norwich fans will groan at the idea of having to rely on our away form, but unfortunately this is the situation we find ourselves in, so are there any positives for Norwich fans?

Well yes.

Southampton have little to play for and seem to have gone off the boil in the last few games, with their top players all determined to stay fit ahead of the World Cup.

Swansea too are not unassailable at the Liberty Stadium, just remember the 3-4 win last season.

Fulham, though our bogey team, are on a rotten run of form and luck, and there is no reason Norwich should not head to Craven Cottage aiming for a win in the last game before the nightmare final four.

If Norwich win two and draw three in the next five games they will sit on 38 points, which should see them comfortably into the safety zone, and even one win and four draws would see the Yellows reach 36, probably enough to stay up this season.

And all this assumes Norwich fail to get anything from the final four games, a couple of which could potentially yield points.

This is certainly not the way the Norwich squad, management or fans would have liked to look at this season, but unfortunately this is the situation we find ourselves in.

While three points at the weekend would have seen Norwich onto 31 points and 12th place, a draw was not a total disaster.

With Southampton up next, Norwich must head to the south coast with a positive game plan and hope the defence, so often leaky on the road, tightens up and can earn the Yellows at least a point.

On The Ball City

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