Wolves: Lies, damned lies and statistics

Article by Robin Attfield

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A government official supposedly asked, when about to start analysis of a set of complex information, what results the government wanted so that he could interpret the statistics accordingly. Football statistics are no different and are open to diverse interpretation. The other day, an article announced that Kevin McDonald was the most accurate passer in the Championship after the first seven games with 500 qccurate passes – some 90 more than his nearest rival. Third in the list was another Wolves player, Scott Goldbourne. McDonald was rightly lauded as the best player at the club last year by fans and fellow players and is central to the way the team functions. To his credit, opposition teams know this as well but have mostly failed to shackle his influence and stop the team from playing in the way they want. Statistics on their own rarely give answers but provide the questions that need to be asked. To make a meaningful judgment you would want to know:

* How many of the passes were forward, backwards or lateral?
* How many led to goal scoring chances?
* How many led to goals? (two in my recollection which is great even if one was an own goal from a tired cross at the end of the game).
* What was the average distance of each pass?
* How many were undertaken under pressure?
* How many other passes were inaccurate so what was the proportion of accuracy?
* How many passes were made under challenge?

Depending on the answers you may get a very different picture. McDonald plays a vital link role between defence and attack and he rarely hits long passes. If you play short passes you will inevitably be accurate but will you play the defence-splitting pass that opens up the opposition? If as a player you are judged by a narrow use of statistics will you become obsessed with such statistics and will you be inclined to play safe and not risk the longer pass.

No player should be seen in isolation. Each has a role to play and currently his midfield partner is charged with playing the longer passes and generally further forward. As interesting to me as the statistic about McDonald whom you would expect to be central to receiving and moving on the ball was the time on the ball and accuracy of passing from the left back, Scott Goldbourne and his influence on the team which is only recently being fully acknowledged by watchers. Incidentally as one of the top four passers is Scott Parker from Fulham, performance and outcome are seen as quite separate at times.

A common statistic is how much ground is covered by a player. Is it really valuable to have run further than everybody else, worn yourself out and thus falter on the rare occasion that you arrive at the right place at the right time with a goal scoring opportunity? Statistics give you information about quantity, You must add quality. You must run to the right place at the right time. Wayne Gretsky, one of the most successful ice hockey scorers ever, summarised his success as skating to where the puck is going to go. Anticipation does not show up on a movement chart.

Looking at statistics and drawing conclusions can be a dangerous but entertaining game. Lee Evans is confident that he can score from around 25 yards and must have had six such attempts in the last two matches. One reliable statistic is that unless you shoot on target you will not score. Perhaps a focus on more accuracy and less power would produce a dividend? Wolves record on converting corners is incredibly low and from 20 corners in the last two matches we have had two goal-bound efforts one of which went in and both from the same player. Surely something to think about on the training ground as Kenny Jackett acknowledges that around 1/3 of Championship goals come from set plays. We are actually above this figure with 3/8 from set pieces but in that time have probably managed to have a 100% missing record for penalties (0/1) and around a 3% return on corners which must be amongst the lowest of anyone in any league.

Amongst the weekend’s heroes is one of the most unsung and whose statistics would tell but part of the story. Step forward Karl Ikeme. He is a great shot stopper and mostly good on crosses. He is brave and agile but far more than that, he has a presence and a confidence now. He gained the headlines yesterday by saving well a poorish penalty and weak follow-up but when opposition players approach you feel that they will not score. Line Casper Schmeichel at his best you feel that players are almost intimidate to shoot wide or at the keeper. His presence regularly rescues his colleagues and has started to make Molineux a fortress where teams such as Bolton yesterday can outplay us for half of a match but fail to capitalise on chances and leave with nothing. Some statistics bring their own weight and power and 4 straight wins at home, following a long unbeaten run last season, mean that teams (ours and the away team) and the crowd are beginning to expect victory each week and this can happen when we play below our capacity.

The statistic that is likely to most concern KJ over the next eight days surrounds the conversion of chances – not just an issue for the lone striker who scored yesterday doubling his league tally and his still rather poor conversion rate of chances and for his cover whose confidence level means he could currently find a way to miss an open goal or contrive to not be there when the opportunity arose but for all of the team and for some extra human resource to take the pressure of Nouha Dicko. When teams like Bolton can bring on someone like Beckford as a substitute who loves scoring at Molineux and where teams like Notts Forest can boast a number of credible strikers, we must act now. KJ is shrewd and knows that the loan market is his best option now and that, given the rules, we did not want to make the capture too early. The next eight days see no game and surely playing with our wingers and the chances on offer must be a great attraction to a number of players who are warming benches in the Prem or looking forward to U21 football. The stats in terms of chances taken must improve if we are to be serious contenders for promotion and it is to KJ’s and the team’s immense credit that we are now being seen as such when we still have a major piece of the jigsaw missing.

A statistic I would find interesting would involve manager team changes to his starting XI. Already we have seen three managers depart the Championship and they changed their teams regularly. I suspect that stability in team selection over the year will lead to a pretty successful season and may be worth more than searching for superstars!!

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