Manchester United and the Importance of Fourth Place

Article by e-Manchester United Correspondent Mark Harbottle

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This has been a new topic of interest for many Manchester United fans. It’s always been a common theme in the closing weeks of every Premier League, but never has the race for a Champions League spot been so important – particularly this year, and especially for David Moyes.

In 1993 Manchester United were awarded £815,000 for winning the Premier League.

In 2003 Manchester United were awarded £10 million for winning the Premier League.

In 2013 Manchester United were awarded £61 million for winning the Premier League.

That’s 1127% increase in the first 10 years, and 510% increase in the next 10 years. That’s quite dramatic for 20 years, but that’s not the statistic that hits home the most:

In 2014 the winner of the Premier League will be awarded over £100 million.

In 2014 the team with the lowest points will be awarded £60 million.

Last place will get the same amount of money that last year’s winners were awarded?! The increase has never been greater. There are numerous reasons for this, starting with more commercial rights, the PL reaching all four corners of the globe, but possibly the most influential is BT Sport’s successful bid of nearly £1 billion to win the rights of the Champions League over three seasons. That figure is double the current investment between Sky, ITV etc.

So what does all this mean for David and the Red Army? The physical prize money between 4th and 5th spot is largely irrelevant (Manchester United are a global brand, there’s enough cash floating around the club), but the implications of finishing 5th are dramatic.

I have yet to find someone who doesn’t think Manchester United need to buy in the summer. Juan Mata is largely considered “the first of many” and I’m positively drooling over some of the names being thrown around; Toni Kroos, Arturo Vidal, William Carvalho - all exceptional players. However do you really think Toni Kroos, the 24 year old Bayern Munich Midfield Maestro would leave champions league football, his home country and possibly Bundesliga winners to play football in the deeper parts of Europe for a club that finished fifth? Personally I think that’s unlikely.

I’m also not convinced we’ll still have our best players by August 2014 if we don’t make it to the top four. Wayne Rooney hasn’t signed his so-called £300,000 a week contract yet. Would he take the Europa League over the Champions League? Given his chequered past in the latter stages of his contracts I’m not convinced.

But the Europa League is not the end of the world. Chelsea won it, and look at them now – competing for the title and through to the last 16 in Europe. There’s talk of the winners given automatic qualification to the Champions League to encourage the importance of this competition, but there’s something about Thursday / Saturday matches that whispers the word “disadvantage” in the domestic league.

Assuming we are destined for the dreaded fifth spot, the clubs above us; City, Arsenal, Chelsea and (insert Liverpool, Tottenham or Everton here) will be spending some serious money in the summer. They can offer players more money, Champions League football and the opportunity to challenge for the title with squads that boast more stars than Elton John’s 60th…you get the drift. Our key rivals are certainly going to strengthen next year and if we can’t (and I think we need to the most) then the gap between “us and them” will grow.

We’ve seen the effect of this before when Liverpool finished 2nd in 2009, and 7th in 2010. It’s been five years since they’ve been in such good form. Looking back further we can remind ourselves of Newcastle United finishing 2nd in 1997, and 13th in ’98. If you can’t go forward you’ll only go backwards - there’s no such thing as standing still in football.

So 5th spot means the Europa League, which means less money, no players signing for us and ends with us plummeting down the league table year on year. It sounds awful. Is there a solution? Well I believe in a settling in period, and I do believe Moyes is still finding his feet / putting his own stamp on the squad. He hasn’t had the same starting 11 once this season, and if you’re going to get time in any of the top clubs then Manchester United is the one. We were winning games last season and not playing well, but it’s those games where points have been dropped this season. It’s also easy to argue we have missed our two main strikers – but surely Stoke was our best attacking force so far this season (RvP, Rooney and Mata) but we still lost (albeit to a howler and a worldie). It’s time to start converting these and ensuring 4th spot can go to the last day of the season.

Moyes has time and I’m sure he can get away with a season or two with performances below par, but the race for a Champions League spot is frighteningly close to the home straight. I’m petrified of United being left behind, because these days it’s almost impossible to catch up.

Obtaining a place amongst Europe’s Elite is ultimately about being in the best position to challenge next season. Anything could happen this year, but I firmly believe the difference between 4th and 5th place will influence the performance in 2014/15 and beyond. Maybe it’s not the end of the world, but it will certainly make David Moyes’ job a damn sight easier for years to come.

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